Edwin le Heron
27 Seiten · 10,80 EUR
(September 2011)
Abstract:
The paper aims at showing that one of the main channels by which the US 2007 financial crisis became a real and global economic crisis is the 'confidence channel', i.e. that the financial crisis affected firms, banks and households? expectations and confidence, thus leading to what they were fearing. And I propose to model expectations and the state of confidence of private agents to use the indexes calculated by national statistical services from monthly polls.
JEL classifications: E12, E27, E41, E43, E47, E51, E52
Keywords: confidence, financial crisis, stock-flow-consistent modelling