Özlem Onaran

International financial markets and fragility in Eastern Europe: “Can it happen” here?

20 Seiten · 5,37 EUR
(November 2007)

Ich bin mit den AGBs, insbesondere Punkt 10 (ausschließlich private Nutzung, keine Weitergabe an Dritte), einverstanden

Özlem Onaran compares indicators of the present situation in Eastern Europe with the pre-crisis situation in East Asia and Latin America in the 1990s. From a perspective inspired by Minsky, she asks “Can it happen here?” Indicators like the current account, structure of the foreign debt, appreciation of the exchange rate have been worse for a number of Central and East European states – most notably the Baltic States, Romania and Bulgaria – than was the case in the pre-crisis years in South East Asian and Latin American states in the 1990s. In the light of past experience, some indicators are critical for other states of the region as well. However, “it”, i.e. the crisis, has not (yet?) happened. Both Özlem Onaran and Joachim Becker share the view that foreign investors have been more lenient with Central European states due to their EU perspective and later membership than with non-European states of the semi-periphery. However, a more critical perspective of the viability of the external deficits and debts of some states of the region, i.e. Latvia seems to be emerging. Thus, perceptions might change, as might the international environment. In summer 2007, the ripples of the US real estate sector exposed the fragility of the financial sector in the centre states.