Özlem Onaran

Speculation-led growth and fragility in Turkey: Does EU make a difference or "can it happen again"?

29 Seiten · 6,21 EUR
(August 2006)

Ich bin mit den AGBs, insbesondere Punkt 10 (ausschließlich private Nutzung, keine Weitergabe an Dritte), einverstanden

From the introduction of the editors:

The aim of the paper by Özlem Onaran is to analyse the pattern of speculation-led growth in Turkey dependent on international capital flows. The analysis is based on the post-Keynesian/Minskian concepts of endogenous expectations and financial fragility. The paper assesses the sustainability of this speculation-led growth in the context of EU enlargement and compares the leading indicators of fragility in Turkey and the CEECs with the values in Asian and Latin American countries before their recent crisis years. The aim of this comparison is to understand the degree of risk as well as the endogenous evolution of expectations. The current account problem is placed in a long-term perspective, based on the regime of growth and the structural problems of Turkey. The paper questions whether an economy, which is ruled by the rationale of profit seeking private capital flows, could be stable, or whether it is the logic of those activities to create a crisis sooner or later within the normal and even successful functioning of the system. Finally, the policy conclusions of the analysis are discussed.