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On the manic-depressive fluctuations of speculative prices
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On the manic-depressive fluctuations of speculative prices

27 Seiten · 3,72 EUR
(März 2009)

 
Ich bin mit den AGB, insbesondere Punkt 10 (ausschließlich private Nutzung, keine Weitergabe an Dritte), einverstanden und erkenne an, dass meine Bestellung nicht widerrufen werden kann.
 
 

The chapter by Stephan Schulmeister deals with the relationship between two phenomena: Asset prices move in a sequence of upward trends (“bull markets”) and downward trends (“bear markets”) which last for several years. At the same time, trading in financial markets has become progressively “faster”, the time horizon of most transactions is shorter than a few hours. This coincidence begs the question: How do very short-term transactions generate long-term asset price trends? The main result of the chapter is the following. Over short periods of time (i.e., days or weeks), asset prices move in a sequence of “underlying” runs, sometimes interrupted by sideways movements (“whipsaws”). Over long periods of time, these runs last longer in one direction than the “counter-runs” do. The accumulation of these price movements results in upward or downward trends, i.e., “bull markets” and “bear markets”. The sequences of these trends add up to long-term irregular cycles of asset prices around the fundamental equilibrium without any tendency to converge towards this level.

zitierfähiger Aufsatz aus ...
Finance-led Capitalism?
Eckhard Hein, Torsten Niechoj, Peter Spahn, Achim Truger (eds.):
Finance-led Capitalism?
the author
Prof. Dr. Stephan Schulmeister
Stephan Schulmeister

Wissenschaftlicher Referent am Österreichischen Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (Wifo), Wien. Lehrtätigkeit an der Universität Wien und der Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien.

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